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从种子到餐桌的危机
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从种子到餐桌的危机

0
作者:郎咸平演讲
2009-11-

在美国密苏里州圣路易斯市有一家跨国农业生物技术公司,它被《商业周刊》选为2008年的十大最具影响力企业之一,它的名字叫做孟山都(Monsanto)。



该公司目前也是领先的转基因种子生产商,占据了多种农作物种子70%至100%的市场份额。如今,以孟山都为代表的跨国农业大鳄正把他们在全球惯用的伎俩移向中国。随着轮胎特保案的发生以及我国商务部对于美国进口鸡肉的“双反”调查的展开,中美贸易的焦点将由轮胎转向饲料以及玉米。由于美国政府对玉米种植给予高额补贴,使得美国玉米在全球市场中拥有了极强的价格竞争力,同时又以新能源的名义让这种补贴有了一个道德制高点。那么,由此引发的玉米大战又将朝着何种方向发展呢?

轮胎特保案发生之后我们中国政府如何反击?对哪些产品反击,各位知道吗?

鸡肉,我们准备对美国的鸡肉进行反击。

你好大胆唉!你敢反击美国的鸡肉,我问你,干嘛反击美国的鸡肉?

因为它价格非常便宜是吧?为什么非常便宜呢?

第一,在美国养鸡,你要不要建鸡舍?给鸡盖房子,你觉得美国的成本会低吗?不会。

第二,你要不要聘人工来照顾这些鸡呀?要的,美国的工资会低吗?不会。

第三,你孵小鸡有特别的技术吗?没有,跟我们中国用的方法是一样的。

所以,建鸡舍,聘人工,孵小鸡,美国的成本都比我们要高,那美国的鸡肉凭什么这么便宜?

只有一个原因,美国的饲料非常便宜!

我再问你,饲料都是用什么做的?

玉米,哦,原来美国的饲料都是用玉米做的呀!






我再告诉各位一个数据,美国政府从1998年开始到2008年的10年当中,美国政府对玉米补贴了多少钱,你猜一下?290亿美元!你知道美国政府下一步要干什么吗?

透过新能源的开发,美国站到了道德制高点,继续对玉米种植进行补贴,而且是合理合法的补贴。其它玉米产地包括巴西、阿根廷看到心里就不爽了,补贴这么多怎么行呢?东吵吵,西吵吵,就告到了世贸去。两三年之后判下来了,好好好,我降低,补贴金额降低10%。巴西还是不满意,不满意再告,告了之后又要三四年之后才有结果,我再降低2%,你再告去吧,看谁拖的起……这就是美国人干的事。

所以美国的玉米是最低价的,所以他们的饲料也是低价,因此美国的鸡肉才这么便宜。

你现在准备对美国产的鸡肉进行反倾销是吧?好极了,你反倾销的结果就碰到了玉米,如果你是美国人的话,你会怎么反制?当然这一切都正在发生,按照目前所收集的资料正在按照我讲的发生,你敢制裁美国的鸡肉,他就敢透过玉米来制裁你。

美国是全球最大的玉米种植国,同时也是全球最大的玉米出口国。其产量占到全球的40%以上,出口量占全球市场的60%以上。2009年3月,美国农业部的一项调查结果显示,今年美国的玉米种植面积将高达9045.4万英亩,创下65年以来的新高。市场分析人士称,尽管产量创下新高,但玉米价格仍有望升至创纪录,原因就是美国政府将33%的玉米用于新能源,也就是乙醇加工的应用。那么美国玉米用于新能源除了可以为本国玉米的价格进行补贴提供接口外,还有什么特殊的意义呢?

由于玉米可以做乙醇,当石油价格高的时候,就有很多的人和企业转用乙醇,转用乙醇的结果,乙醇的价格也升高了。当石油价格低的话,大家就都用石油了,不用乙醇了,所以乙醇的价格也低了。美国的做法使得乙醇的价格跟石油价格挂钩了,玉米也就跟着挂钩了。因为石油价格是美国操纵的,只要他操纵了石油价格,就操纵了玉米的价格。

一旦你决定了玉米价格,各位知道这有多可怕吗?玉米要做成饲料,饲料要喂鸡、喂鸭、喂牛、喂猪……因此中国的鸡肉、鸭肉、牛肉、猪肉、鸡蛋、牛奶等等还有之前讲过的粮油价格全部都受到了美国人的控制。

所以只要美国人开始操纵石油价格,就操纵了玉米价格,操纵了玉米的价格就操纵了中国的食品价格,而食品价格占中国CPI(消费物价指数)的比例是33%。

你想对抗吗?好极了,美国政府只要拉抬油价,铁矿砂价格上升了,玉米价格上升了,中国饲料价格上涨了,中国的食品价格也跟着上涨了,然后透过33%的比例,中国的CPI就上涨了。

所以美国的下一步是操控中国的玉米市场,要让大豆的故事在中国重新翻版一次(见郎咸平:未来你还吃得起饭吗? ),所以玉米大战即将展开。

在美国政府的鼓励下,2009年美国用于新能源的玉米将由去年总产量的20%增加到25%,据联合国有关专家测算,50升替代燃料能加满一辆汽车的油箱,加工它所需的玉米为232公斤,相当于一名儿童一年的口粮。玉米价格的上涨,不仅使依赖进口粮食的国家特别是贫困国家遭遇沉重一击,而且也将引发肉、蛋、奶产品价格上涨的连锁反应。这引发了各国的高度重视,那么国内的玉米市场又是如何的呢?

最近,我们国储要储藏玉米。因为经济萧条,零售价下跌,农民要受到损失。我们国家为了保障农民权益,提高了收购价格(这是我们一向干的事儿)。零售价格下跌,玉米等农产品的收购价格上升,这样搞贸易的、搞加工的企业不是死光了吗?

举个例子,原来一吨淀粉的价格是2400块,做成淀粉之后跟玉米的差价大概是500~700块,他还有利润。前一阵子,淀粉零售价降到2000元/吨,所以淀粉跟玉米的差价变成只有100块了,做淀粉的企业基本上全部亏损。饲料价格也是一样的,你把玉米收购价格提高,零售价格压低,两个价格倒挂的结果就是所有的贸易商、贸易加工业、饲料业都非常困难。做饲料的新希望,你们猜一下,最近他在做什么?

他希望开放玉米进口!

一旦开放玉米进口,在美国政府的补贴之下,国内的玉米就会像当年的大豆一样,遭到全线淘汰。美国从1998年补贴到现在一共是290亿美元的补贴,我们中国哪有实力用这么多钱去补贴一个产业?290亿美元可以造多少导弹?造多少航空母舰?

大量美国的便宜玉米一旦进入,中国的玉米必将重蹈大豆的覆辙。

以后都开始用美国的玉米了是吧?那美国的玉米价格又跟石油价格挂钩,那美国只要操纵石油价格就可以操纵玉米价格。美国只要想造成通货膨胀,就拉抬石油价格,玉米价格上涨,然后中国的饲料价格上涨,然后中国的农产品价格上涨,食品价格上涨,最后中国的CPI上涨,就这么简单。这就是美国的反制,各位都懂了吗?

而且我们的贸易加工商、饲料商(包括新希望等)和四大粮商的愿望是一样的。四大粮商都希望中国能够开放玉米进口,因为他们控制了全世界90%的玉米交易量。如果中国开放玉米进口的话,四大粮商就可以图利。但是中国的贸易商跟饲料商也希望开放玉米进口,因为中国价格倒挂。这种情况之下你发现四大粮商希望,中国的企业也希望,最后在双层压力之下很可能开放进口。

但是中国政府未必会听美国的。举个例子,中国的玉米一半产在东北,以黑龙江为例,有5900万亩玉米,我们政府对玉米生产非常关注,也非常严格。如果我们中国不开放进口怎么办呢?美国会怎么做?

由于种业涉及到国家粮食安全,世界上很多国家就是因为被孟山都占据市场,所以在定价等方面受制于这些跨国公司,比如巴西、阿根廷等国家。分析认为,如果孟山都直接要求中国开放市场,肯定会以碰壁告终。更何况在大豆问题上,中国已经有了前车之鉴。因此在国际市场上极其强势的孟山都要想在中国打开玉米市场将是一件很难的事情。那么孟山都将会怎么做呢?

干脆从敌人内部攻克碉堡,直接杀入中国,而且他们已经在干这个事了。干脆在中国生产美国的玉米!
东北跟北方是中国玉米的重镇,黑龙江有5900万亩的玉米,是最重要的生产基地。所以他们就不去东北,去了一个我们想都想象不到的地方,一个根本不产玉米的地方,广西自治区。按照我们的数据显示,到今天为止广西有1026万亩玉米,是黑龙江的五分之一。他亩产463公斤,比中国的平均亩产量多了73公斤,他生产的玉米叫做“迪卡007”。

“迪卡007”是由孟山都开发的种子。你们还记不记得,就是孟山都当年从中国偷走了一颗大豆造成今天中国大豆的灾难?

2000年的时候,他从我们中国农科院的生物研究所偷走了大豆,然后回去做研究,把大豆的多产跟抗病毒的基因找出来了。接着他在全世界101个国家申请了64项专利,又把这个大豆卖回中国。这就是孟山都,透过他们的大豆,席卷了中国的大豆市场,所以今天中国的大豆都是孟山都的转基因大豆。

现在,他们开发了迪卡007号玉米,又是孟山都在广西种植的。要干嘛呢?培养“北伐”的力量!从广西开始“北伐”,因为他的价格最便宜,已经不需要再靠进口了,全面推广孟山都的“迪卡008号”玉米。在我们的农科院还没有研究出“迪卡008”的基因之前,我们就敢推广,你晓不晓得问题是什么?

你晓不晓得它的特性是什么?现在是成本低,产量大。

更可怕的是,他们在广西竟然不收取种子的专利费,种子便宜卖给你,专利费都不要,比中国的还要便宜,等于是送给你。你们农民要仿效,无所谓。你们当地农科院要复制,无所谓,反正我不收专利费,我只要你大力推广。你觉得可能吗?

我发现一个很有意思的例子,孟山都刚刚到阿根廷的时候也是非常仁慈的,对于黑市交易的盗版种子不闻不问,对于农民私藏种子种植下一代也是假装看不见,跟它在中国干的一样。一直到他们的玉米市场份额占到了99%,全面控制了阿根廷的玉米市场之后,他才跟阿根廷的农民打官司。而且是那么大的公司对于个人提起诉讼,你个人哪是对手呢?而且孟山都曾经在美国对150个农民提起诉讼,你们以为罚款就了事了吗?错了,平均8年徒刑!还有几十倍的专利费赔偿,弄一个种子还要做8年牢?对,这就是孟山都,这就是可怕的孟山都,这就是偷我们大豆的那个孟山都!

不仅阿根廷不是他们的对手,就连科技发达的西欧也被孟山都攻陷了。现在三大外资种子公司,一个是美国的孟山都,一个是美国的杜邦,还有德国的巴斯夫三家,已经控制了西欧80%玉米种子的市场。在中国,他们从广西刚刚起步,告诉各位一个不幸的消息,这三家以孟山都为首的公司已经控制了我们50%蔬菜种子的市场份额。

孟山都之所以可以成为全球种子帝国的霸主,其拿手好戏之一就是政府游说。为了在尽量多的国家尽量多的传统农作物耕地上播种转基因品种,孟山都设在世界各地的办公室都尽其所能。通过政府公关和政策游说,以克服当地的监管藩篱。今天在中国,孟山都所使用的伎俩只不过是在世界其他各国的翻版。那么孟山都的游说为什么在全球都会得以成功呢?在孟山都攻无不克的玉米种子当中到底包藏着什么秘密呢?

“迪卡008”里面有什么?请注意它是转基因的。如果农民把“迪卡008”种了之后,产生的新的种子下一代再拿来种,再下一代再拿来种,第三代之后产量会大幅下跌。

而且“迪卡008”第一代的时候特别抗病毒,但是有个潜在的问题,那就是抗了第一个最重大的病毒之后,第二、第三、第四、第五就开始扩大了,病毒有很多种。A病毒毒性很强,你把它控制了之后,第二个病毒B就起来了。所以你一旦用了“迪卡008”之后,你发现前一两年之内可以抗A病毒,可是两三年之内B、C、D、E、F病毒全起来了。所以三年之后你产量不仅大幅下跌,而且要买更多的农药来杀B、C、D、E、F病毒。用什么农药才能杀这些病毒呢?我做过调研,能够生产特效药杀这些病毒的公司全世界只有两家:一家叫做孟山都,另外一家是它的姐妹企业——德国的巴斯夫。

你们广西农民不是喜欢剽窃吗?你们种我们的“迪卡008”可以,没问题。两三年之后,产量下跌了,B、C、D、E、F病毒起来了。你第一个选择是向孟山都买农药,第二个选择是再去向他买种子,所以不但种子的钱回来了,有多了一个农药的钱。

但是你要注意,最后这些玉米的产品统统都是孟山都的,你走也走不了。因为到三年之后你还是希望孟山都能像过去一样不收专利费,免费给我们用他的种子,让我们赚更多的钱,因为人性都是贪婪的。三年之后你发现还是孟山都好,不然就向他买农药,不然就向他买种子,你还是要回去。

那么等到广西农民得到甜头之后,广西农民富裕了,孟山都也赚钱了,我相信云南、四川等地都会开始来用“迪卡008”,之后你会发现中国西南部成为世界玉米最大的产地。

所以他们不需要透过进口,从内部攻破中国,到这个时刻就特别好了,你会发现中国的玉米都是以孟山都为首的玉米,都是美国玉米了。到这个时刻就和大豆的结果是一样的,路径选择是不一样的。因为我们记起了大豆的教训,不会再轻易进口玉米。但是他已经从中国内部攻破,从广西开始了“北伐”。

我讲的不是理论,他已经开始做了,目前是1026万亩的土地在种植,如果我们的玉米全部都被攻陷了是什么结果呢?

美国前国务卿基辛格在1970年曾发表言论称,“如果你控制了石油,你就控制了所有的国家;如果你控制了粮食,你就控制了所有的人类。”社会的飞速发展正在制造着这样的可能性。从1996年到2004年的仅仅8年时间,全世界转基因作物的种植面积就增加了约40倍,达到1.67亿英亩,约占世界农业耕地总面积的25%。绿色革命披着传输农作物科学和现代技术的外衣,把美国的商业化农业引入到主要的发展中国家来。那么,如果任由发达国家生物科技公司新圈地运动扩张的话,中国经济将遭遇怎样的问题呢?

中国的食品价格将全部受到美国的操控,我之前讲过的还只是大豆,你们还记得吗?中国的粮油价格受到华尔街的操纵。现在不是了,现在中国所有的食品,包括奶制品、肉制品、蛋类占了33%CPI的全部受美国的控制。

你要晓得,美国一旦决定对我们的轮胎进行特保,他会一定想到后面所有的措施,他一定想到中国会报复,所以他一定会采取反报复。所以一旦我们对鸡肉进行报复,他们对玉米就开始了。鸡肉他无所谓,他继续补贴,他有钱,可是玉米怎么办?玉米不是一个简单的报复问题了,而是美国玉米将席卷中国玉米。玉米跟大豆是两回事儿,大豆顶多影响到粮油,玉米要影响到33%的CPI。而且以刘永好的新希望为例,全国的贸易商、加工厂全部都像四大粮商一样,都希望能进口孟山都的玉米。

这个道理其实很简单,日本过去是不是出口汽车到美国?然后美国设置各种的贸易障碍,提高关税,限制进口日本汽车。结果日本把丰田跟本田开到美国去,由敌人内部进攻,在美国本土设汽车厂,聘用美国本土的工人,增加了美国的就业量,所以美国人对他无可奈何。

玉米的情况也是一样的,你不进口是吧?我像本田、丰田一样,到中国种植美国的玉米,太有意思了。
我们过去只认识华尔街,经过我的介绍之后,我们了解了四大粮商,但是四大粮商之后又有一个孟山都是我们所不知道的。所以我就把孟山都给各位提列出来,让大家知道他是干什么的。

由于美国玉米是用来做乙醇的,所以石油价格高,用乙醇,那么玉米价格上升。石油价格低,用石油不用乙醇,所以玉米价格也就低了。玉米价格跟石油价格走势是类同的。

到最后美国人会怎么做呢?

那就是华尔街冲进芝加哥期货交易所控制中国粮油,然后透过控制石油价格操控乙醇价格,乙醇价格控制玉米价格。只要拉抬石油价格,玉米价格就会上升,然后中国饲料价格上升,因此中国食品价格上升,因此中国CPI的33%也跟着上升。所以美国透过玉米操纵了中国的通货膨胀。

我认为这就是美国人的战略,你最好相信我的话。你要晓得,这不是玉米的问题,而是金融战的问题。请你想一想,如果美国能透过玉米操控中国的通货膨胀,他何乐而不为呢?

因为今天已经不是传统战争了,不是战车大炮的问题了,我们所面临的就是一场彻头彻尾的金融战。也就是说150年前那种战争形态是不会出现的,和150年前不同了,当时它们掠夺大清王朝是以东印度公司为前导,炮舰为后盾,这一切你都看得到。今天叫做以国际化为前导,开放进出口,以金融为后盾,这是一个新形态的新战争。我们在大豆问题上已经吃了亏了,现在玉米就是下一波。
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